![]() ![]() But you can go back and see how much different the parlays would have been if different horses had won. ![]() So I’m going to lay out a Pick 4 sequence with some rough odds, and I decided to have it go a certain way. But the parlay does often give you a decent approximation. You’re only paying the takeout once in a Pick 4 or 5 as opposed to every race in a parlay, so that and a few other reasons are often why Pick 4 or Pick 5 bets will usually pay a bit higher than the parlay. Essentially you’re tracking your Pick 4 or Pick 5 as though it’s a win parlay, because in a way it is - it’s just bet into a four- or five-leg pool. This is meant to be a pretty basic and approximate example and explanation of how to track equity and why I think it’s a good skill to learn. I talked about this a lot in the second half of today’s podcast if you want further discussion. I think so many players are on autopilot in their construction of “who do I need to get through” that they don’t see how often they’re losing equity or breaking even in legs of their ticket. Learning which legs you’re truly gaining equity and which you’re likely losing will help to give you a broader sense of the quality of your tickets in terms of construction and how they lay out. I think many Pick 4 and Pick 5 players, especially unsuccessful ones, don’t know about tracking equity throughout their bets. A good Thursday morning to you all! We press on in our six-part series “The Six Secrets of Unsuccessful Bettors” with one of my favorite topics to discuss. ![]()
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